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Magazine «GeoRisk» , 4/2015


Review of Natural Hazard Events for the Fourth Quarter of 2015

SHANINA V.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University ...4


Future of The Climate: Will The Permafrost Melt? Nobel laureate Dominique Reynaud delivered a lecture about the climate of our Planet

STRIZHKOV S.N. NPF Dorcenter ...10

With the assistance of Rossotrudnichestvo, representative office of French-Russian Centre of science and culture in Paris an open lecture was delivered by world-renowned climate scientist, Director of research of the national research centre in Grenoble (France), Professor of University of Joseph Fourier, a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change and a foreign member of the Russian academy of sciences Dominique Reynaud. Thе theme of lecture was: «Glacial archives of past and current state of the climate. Learn about the effects of carbon dioxide on melting glaciers, on the annual changing of the climate situation on the planet, the trend to warming». In the scientific disscusion with Mr. Raynaud Professor Strizhkov showed that negative cryogenic processes manifest themselves in a local temperature of thermal fields under a road and rail embankments, buildings and structures, oil and gas pipelines formation of man-made talik zones, increasing the depths of seasonal thawing of soil, and, consequently, flooding, which is one of the most adverse factors affecting the sustainability of soil loss reason and supporting structures. All these phenomena occur because of climate change towards warming. Professor Reynaud and Professor Strizhkov agreed that it is necessary to accumulate, summarize, organize, and discuss scientific research and practical experience. The meetings of scientists all over the world in specialized scientificpractical conferences and exchange opinions and results of the latest developments and research are needed.

Кey words: open lecture, climate change, ice cores, paleoclimatology, glaciology, carbon dioxide, methane, greenhouse effect, climate conference Paris, СОР 21, warming, geotechnical monitoring, permafrost, international glaciological society, The Polar Alfred Wegener Institute (IPCC), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Antarctic expedition, the global climatic system.

Conditions of Formation of Cohesive Debris Flows in Low Precipitation and The Distribution of The Dynamic Characteristics in Debris-Flow Channel

KAZAKOV N.A., GENSIOROVSKIY Y.V., OKOPNIY V.I., BOBROVA D.A., KAZAKOVA E. N, RYBALCHENKO S.V. Far East Geological Institute of the FEB RAS, Sakhalin Department ...12

Debris-flow volume of 20 000 m3 came down on the East coast Sakhalin Island when daily precipitation 3.0 mm in consequence of previous moisture breeds during snowmelt. In debris-flow process of geological factors of debris-flow formation are dominant. The closest to the real value of the velocity of debrisflow allows to obtain a field method of determining the flow rate on the magnitude of the velocity head.

Кey words: debris flows, potential debris-flow massif, Sakhalin Island.

Anthropogenic and Natural-Anthropogenic Avalanche Complex (Sakhalin Island)

KAZAKOVA E.N., BOBROVA D.A. Far East Geological Institute of the FEB RAS, Sakhalin Department ...18

At the present time active economic activity leads to changes in natural avalanche complex and creates anthropogenic avalanche complex. This caused to increase of avalanche hazard of territory. There are several cases of deaths in avalanches passed from artificial slopes in different regions of Russia. The problem of the avalanche formation on artificial slopes is poorly studied: there are only some facts about avalanches on artificial slopes in literature. However artificial slopes aren’t usually considered as dangerous. Artificial slopes with relative elevation more than 5 m, slope from 30° to 50° and thickness of the snow cover more than 30 cm should be recognized avalanche-prone slopes because there are number of cases of deaths in avalanches passed from artificial slopes. The paper discusses natural-anthropogenic and anthropogenic avalanche complexes.

Кey words: avalanche, avalanche hazard, anthropogenic avalanche complex, natural-anthropogenic avalanche complex, anthropogenic influence, Sakhalin.

Flooding of Lands in The Siberian Region of Russia

RAZUMOV V.V. Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution «Soil Institute of V.V. Dokuchayev» RAZUMOVA N.V. JSC Russian Space Systems MOLCHANOV E.N. Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution «Soil Institute of V.V. Dokuchayev» ...22

Results of systematization and the analysis of various sources containing information on processes of flooding of lands in the territory of the Siberian region of Russia are considered. The reasons of emergence and development of these processes, intensity and scales of their manifestation are established. It is shown that activization of processes of flooding of lands in the territory of the studied region happens both owing to the natural reasons, and due to engineering economic activity of the person.

Кey words: flooding, level of underground (soil) waters, floods, river flood, high waters, rainfall, reservoirs.

The Dependence of The Results of Quantitative Evaluation of Slope Stability from The Choice of The Model Distribution of Soil Properties

BUFEEV F.K., KUVSHINNIKOV V.M. Russian State Geological Prospecting University n. a. Sergo Ordzhonikidzе (MGRI-RSGPU) FOMENKO I.K. Scientific Production Center for Civil Engineering ...37

In this article the influence of soil properties distribution models on the quantitative assessment results of slope stability is considered. Three models of soil properties possible distribution in the landslide/potentially landslide hazardous slopes are considered: the way used in domestic engineering geological practice — soil properties parameter values are set within outlined geological items; the abroad practice way — soil properties normative values are set within selected lithological types; way, using the field of soil properties distribution in massive. The model analysis of slope stability general assessment using different principles of soil properties distribution shows that they have influence on the sliding surface position and the coefficient of slope stability value, thus slope stability problem correct solution can’t be found without the substantiation of soil properties distribution model in the slope massive.

Кey words: models of soil properties distribution, quantitative assessment of slope stability.

Modeling of Snow Avalanches Using Ramms in Russia

TURCHANINOVA A.S., SELIVERSTOV Y.G., GLAZOVSKAYA T.G. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Research Laboratory of Snow Avalanches and Debris Flows ...42

The main goal of our investigation was to test the capabilities of Swiss avalanche dynamics program RAMMS [19] to simulate and back-calculate well-documented avalanches in Russia (according to the observation field data presented in a way of the large-scale GIS for two mountain regions — Khibini Mountains and Mt. Elbrus). The friction parameters (µ (-) and ? values (m/s2)) may be taken from the upper altitude limit (above 1500 m above sea level (m.a.s.l.)) of the table recommended for Switzerland (implemented into RAMMS) for simulations in the Khibini Mountains (absolute height less than 1200 m.a.s.l). RAMMS could be used for simulation of rare extreme avalanche events in the Mt. Elbrus region using friction parameters values recommended for Switzerland with no change. In such a way a high level of correspondence of observed and simulated avalanches was found. At such modification RAMMS allows to reconstruct runout distances and to define the dynamic characteristics of the historical avalanches field observations for which are absent. Thus, we state that RAMMS should be implemented into Russian avalanche hazard assessment practice as a powerful tool that can resolve a lot of problems of snow avalanche engineering in our country.

Кey words: modeling of snow avalanches, avalanche run out distance, flow velocity and impact pressure, RAMMS, GIS.

Scale assessment of active tectonic faults of the crust on the intensity of radon exhalation from the depths to the construction site and the existing energy facilities

ULYANOV V. Pridneprovsky Research and Educational Institute of innovative  technologies in construction SEDIN V.L., BIKUS K.M. Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture ...48

The paper proposes a numerical scale depending on the degree of activity of tectonic faults of the crust on the intensity of the subsoilradon emission. The presence of this scale will allow to reassess the seismotectonic conditions of construction sites, including both existing and under construction nuclear power plants.

Кey words: tectonics, active fault, geodynamics, seismicity, check radon.

Antropogenic Mudflows in the River Mzymta Basin

KAZAKOV N.A. Far East Geological Institute of Far East Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (Sakhalin Department) ...53

Debris flows in the basin of the Mzymta River (Polyana district) are characterized by high intensity: frequency of occurrence of debris flows up to 50 000 m3 is 1 in every 3–5 years. The maximum volume of debris flow can exceed 1 000 000 m3. Storage dumps construction soils in debris-flow basins, in riverbeds and valleys of streams in 2010–2013, have repeatedly led to the formation of anthropogenic debris flows, blockages of roads, destruction of hydraulic and to human casualties.

Кey words: debris-flows, debris-flow process, Krasnaya Polyana.


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