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Magazine «GeoRisk» , 1/2016


Review of natural hazard events for the first quarter of 2016

SHANINA V.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University ...5


Flood monitoring and modeling on the base of a system with service-oriented architecture

ZELENTSOV V.A., POTRYASAEV S.A., PIMANOV I.Yu. St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation of the Russian Academy of Sciences SEMENOV A.E. Earth Sciences Institute of the Saint-Petersburg State University ...12

The paper presents a concept of creating a new information system for monitoring and forecasting of floods accompanied by inundation of territories and economic damage. The authors propose an approach consisting of integration of remote sensing data, ground-based observations and results of mathematical modeling of hydrological phenomena on the basis of geographical information systems for creation of a new information resource promptly presenting feedforward information for decision making. A prototype of such a system based on the principles of service-oriented architecture and technologies with the open source code was developed. The presented methods were successfully applied for prediction of an overflow of the Daugava river (the Daugavpils city, Latvia) and for modeling of a historical flood at the node of confluence of the Sukhona and Yug rivers (the Velikiy Ustyug city, Russia).

Кey words: Earth remote sensing; floods; monitoring; forecasting; modeling; web service; serviceoriented architecture.

Scales and dangers of floods in the territory of the Central Federal District of Russia

RAZUMOV V.V. Soil Institute RAZUMOVA N.V., TSADIKOVSKIY E.I. «Russian Space Systems» JSC PCHELKIN V.I. All-Russian Research Institute on Problems of Civil Defence and Emergency Situations ...16

Results of systematization and analysis of information from various sources on scales and danger of floods in the territory of the Central Federal District of Russia are considered. It is shown that in the considered territory these processes generally develop during spring and summer high waters, more seldom they occur due to uncontrolled evacuation of water from storage reservoirs, formation of ice cloggings on rivers and breaks of head hydraulic structures. The floods, their consequences, emergency situations of hydrological character which occurred in the district in the last 25 years are characterized.

Кey words: Central Federal District of Russia; floods; high waters; floodings; ice-clogging floods; breaks of dams, maximal level of water; dangerous areas; emergency situations.

Methodological aspects of integrated assessment of the ecological-geological risk of erosion degradation of river basins

BUDARINA V.A., UMYVAKIN V.M. Voronezh State University ...30

The article discusses models and methods of constructing nonlinear partial absolute estimates of the ecological-geodynamical state of territories as applied to river basins, as well as partial relative probabilistic estimates and the integrated probabilistic estimate of the ecological-geological risk of accelerated development of gully erosion as a result of economic and other human activities.

Кey words: ecological-geological risk; integrated estimation; geodynamical zones; river basin; erosion degradation.

Synergetic natural-technogenic catastrophes in the south of the European part of Russia

RAZUMOV V.V., ADZHIYEV A.Kh., KOLYCHEV A.G., KONDRATYEVA N.V. High-Mountain Geophysical Institute RAZUMOVA N.V. «Russian Space Systems» JSC ...36

The paper discusses some scenarios of occurred and possible synergistic natural-technogenic catastrophes in the south of the European part of Russia. The conditions, causes and danger levels of such disasters are characterized. It is shown that natural factors of technogenic accidents and catastrophes occurring in the territory of the studied region are generally due to dangerous natural processes, activation of which in turn is substantially due to engineering-economic human activities.

Кey words: synergetic natural-technogenic catastrophes; south of the European part of Russia, emergency situations.

The 1978 quick clay landslide at Rissa, Mid Norway: subaqueous morphology and tsunami simulations

L’HEUREUX J.-S., EILERTSEN R.S., SOLBERG I.-L. Geological Survey of Norway GLIMSDAL S., ISSLER D., HARBITZ C.B. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute ...44

The 1978 landslide at Rissa is the largest to have struck Norway during the last century and is world-famous because it was filmed. Swath bathymetry data and seismic reflection profiles reveal detailed information about the subaqueous morphology of the mass-transport deposits (MTD). Results show that the landslide affected nearly 20% of the lake floor and that it exhibits a complex morphology including distinct lobes, transverse ridges, longitudinal ridges, flow structures and rafted blocks. The rafted blocks found at the outer-rim of the MTD travelled a distance of over 1000 m in the early stage of the landslide on an almost flat basin floor. Simulation of sediment dynamics and tsunami modelling show that the rafted blocks most likely triggered the flood wave with the recorded maximum surface elevation of 6.8 m.

Кey words: Rissa landslide; quick clay; mass transport deposits; numerical simulations; tsunami modelling.


Natural catastrophes in the Bible. The ten plagues of Egypt A piece out of the book of «Mysteries and myths of the science. In search of the truth» by A.M. Gorodnitskiy ...50




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